OK, you heard it here first. Barack and Hillary come out of Super Duper tuesday in a statistical dead
heat, both in absolute votes and in delegates. The available cash
favors Hillary, but momentum and state demographics favor Barack. So,
what if they go into the convention with neither one able to score a
clear victory?
Super delegates my friend. Yes, just like the Super friends and the
Justice League, there is an unelected cadre of senior Democratic Party
know-it-alls who will eventually throw this one way or the other.
Diving deeper, 10% of these are "controlled" (bought and paid for) by
organized labor (AFL-CIO) and 15% are controlled by the NEA. These are
the constituencies that really wanted John Edwards, and he now has the
ability to sway the nomination, or at least the final Democratic
platform on important labor (read free trade and health care) issues.
Would he dance as a VP candidate again? Barack did well in the South,
and maybe, just maybe that's why Edwards bowed out early to give him a
more clear victory there. But, as a VP, the two seem to have redundant
strengths in the south when they need a vote getter from the northeast.
California is a Democratic lock in November, so it doesn't really even
enter the calculus. So, if Johnny and Barack have been cooking
something up in the kitchen, it probably doesn't come out with him as
VP.
Tim
***
The Diner Review takes some small objection to the West Coast commentary of this deeply troubled reader suggesting that Edwards will need to be attorney General and further suggesting that Barack would do well to state now that he is drafting Johnny Depp for VP in order to lock up Cali in the general election and more importantly to beat Hillary to the punch. Now I want Johnny Depp not in his current "Sweeney Todd" mode but i want the young, cool Johnny Depp.... The 21 Jump Street Johnny Depp. That is a VP that could whip the Islamo-facists and save America. That is a team that could roll back the recession, stop the foreclosures on the sub prime loans, settle the financial markets, make our 401 k plans grow again, solve global warming and AIDS in an afternoon... That would be sweet.
1 comment:
My opinion? The super-delegate system is absolute crap. There are enough super delegates to make up for half the number needed to clinch the nomination. Old men, correct me if I am wrong, but the official purpose of developing the super-delegate system in the 1970s was to put more control into the hands of those actively involved in the party. Or to look at it another way, take more control away from us sensible and unbiased believers in the democratic process. The worst is that many super-delegates had commitments before the first of the primaries or caucuses had begun. At least they could wait and see what the popular vote spoke for.
Maybe its because in my state, 8 superdelegates are already standing behind Clinton compared to 1 behind Obama. I NEVER GOT MY RIGHT TO VOTE IN THE PRIMARY! But the leaders of my state are deciding for me. If the National Democratic Party is forfeiting my say in this, than should forfeit the vote of my superdelegates becuase they are representing no one.
On a related note, since this Democrat battle is going to get ugly and last until the convention, Hillary is panicking and asking that the delegates of Michigan and Florida be involved in the final count. If this happens, I'm moving to Canada. Hillary was the only name on the ballot in my state.
Now don't get me wrong, I seem to more often than not express strong dislike for Hillary. However, I would not hate it if she became President, it would be a great thing for this country and I will vote for her if she wins this mess in the Democratic party. However, my first pick is Obama, and my final point is I WAN'T my say and needless to say I am a little pissed that my vote was forfeited and that Bill Clinton's vote is worth more than, if I do the math right, one delegate that it took 11,000 of you people in Missouri to get for Obama.
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