DINER REVIEW ELECTION PREVIEW 2008

Sooooo... it is election eves, eve. The talking heads say Obama is lock but Mc Cain has momentum so it is not over. I do not know how those things gibe. The say Mc Cain has to run the table but figuring they have called some of the races wrong I will say if Mc Cain loses Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida.... he is toast.

He was hilarious on SNL last night. He can make fun of himself and he does have timing. Somehow he let the campaign run him as a grumpy old man (and that is perhaps who he is) but that seems unfair. I like John Mc Cain. I like that he fights for what he believes in. I like that he got his reputation of speaking truth to power but i am voting for Obama because:

1. Mc Cain sold out his “crossing the aisle” I am a consensus maker and builder reputation when he chose a V.P. to pander towards a base which had no where else to go and he adopted the extension of the Bush tax cuts which he had made a career of opposing.

2. The choice of Palin also was just a poor choice for this election and the way she was handled is embarrassing. I am confident that she is smart, ambitious and has the best interests of the government at heart but... the way she was rolled out and pandered to the base was a mistake for a candidate who clearly has a lot going foe her.... even if I think i hate her.

3. He did not surround himself with people who could help him make good decisions in difficult time. Surrounding yourself with people who do not have good instincts is...Bushlike. Obama clearly ran a better, smarter campaign. Perhaps running a campaign is whole lot easier then running a government but if you cannot do one...

So I will show up at 6 in Webster and cast my vote. I have predictions.

1. Voter turnout will be huge but even with a massive increase in young voters (18-25) they will not show up and make the effort to vote.
2. Obama wins in landslide with 58% of popular vote, without the youth vote.
3. He has huge electoral college win leading idiot Democrats to do the same thing Karl Rove did and predict a fundamental turn in the electorate and a permanent democratic majority. This is...idiotic. Our country is deeply polarized and politics is cyclical. It is the Dems year and it is only because Obama is a charismatic leader. With anyone else at the top of the ticket (even Hillary) this is a nail biter and they do not win all those states.
4. The Dems have 59 in the Senate.
5. Obama is one term President.
6. Obama is so wrapped up in recession/depression problems that there is no timing or funding for health care reform or almost anything else.

The Republicans could still win this election. They need to promo Sarah Palin at a 50,000 person rally in Branson to get the whole crowd chanting “Obama, Pelosi and Reed...OH MY!” to the tune of “Lions and Tigers and Bears”. That is a scary thought. That could turn the whole thing around with a few prime time TV buys and huge You Tube press. Seriously, that could do it. Instead they will try and scare people in stupid and unscary ways like Bill Ayers and “socialism”...yawn. they deserve to lose. They have no imagination and that is the unkindest thing I can say.

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MY DREAM
I have a dream that Obama gets elected and immediately does the following:
1. Offers Secretary of Defense job to John Mc Cain
2. Makes Petraus head of joint Chiefs of Staff
3. Offers Secretary of Treasury or Fed job to Warren Buffet and urges him to take it as a matter of public service.
4. Announces Hillary will fill next Supreme Court opening.
5. Shuts down our stock market for a week to retool the rules regarding program trading, hedge funds and over night trading and perhaps selling “futures” of things that are not actual commodities.
6. Consider closing the banks for a brief period to review them and open them again so that people have confidence in them.
7. Set aside 700 billion plan and start over. Do not allow the banks to have any money for mergers unless they are mergers directed by the FDIC. Use the money in a way that actually gets banks to lend.
8. Give the first great speech of this Millenium. remind the country that we are the greatest country in the world but help the country to redefine that greatness.

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I don’t ask for much.
God’s Blessings. Go vote.

Election Fatigue

It could happen to you, it could happen to me, it could happen to everyone eventually... But seriously. I never thought it would happen to me. I was really, really excited about this election. It was close, it was engaging... everything I could want our of an election. I loved it. It had a good guy (Obama), a bad girl (Hillary), a grumpy old man (Mc Cain), a high priest (Huckabee) and a born again Nazi (John Mc Cain). It was fun. I love our system and even with these absurdly early primaries making the season more absuder (legal term) it seemed like it would all be good.

I think I started to tire when I found out that John Mc Cain was a left leaning, pinko, gay marriage espousing, pro abortion, anti-life, probably gay himself, killer of small children, puppy maiming BASTARD! I had no idea. I thought he was just a smart but grumpy old man who had served his country well, been a prisoner of war, devoted himself to public service, refused the pork barrel earmarks and (in earlier elections) stood up to hate and intolerance. So it was distracting when my favorite comfort woman to the Nazi’s... Anne Coulter set me straight on John Mc Cain. I think that started to make me tired.
And then there was Super Tuesday. I was really thinking I would get some closure on the Obama/Clinton thing at Super Tuesday but... instead I get uncertainty and fear that we will go to the convention without being united. That there will be legal battles over the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegates where Hillary won and Barack didn’t campaign. That there will be a convention decided by “Super Delegates” that no one voted for.

Now Romney has quit. That is a good thing because I really hated him (and I know that is irrational) and his rich guy (I put 35 million into my own campaign) pretty haired, I turned around the Olympics and a consulting company so I can run the country, attitude. Now everyone says Mc Cain will pick Huckabee as his VP but I do not see it. I hope he does not grab Johnny Depp before Obama thinks of it. God it is hard on me coming up with all the ideas for these guys.

And when I started to think about all that I really just became tired of the whole thing. I listened to all the analysts on Wednesday puffing and talking and... I just got tired. The local NPR station started it’s Valentine’s pledge drive this morning and I was grateful for the break in commentating. I think that I am afraid for the future and that makes me feel weak and sad. I do not have a lot of faith that anyone can save us from a long cold winter in our economy and I have fears of fascism and nationalism and a lot of other ism’s as we start through our Limbaugh and Coulter demagogues to find people to blame. I really am afraid of that so... I am taking a break from political blogging for a while and doing a strategic withdrawal until March or so. Certainly know one can object to that?

SUPER TUESDAY

Soooo... it is hard to write about anything but politics. The South Carolina thing, rather then being treated as a coronation of Obama seems to be seen by the media as only a pre-requisite to his candidacy staying alive. There seems to be some serious question in the medias mind that, after winning States as broad as Iowa and South Carolina, he might still not fair well on Super Tuesday. 1 day to Super Tuesday...yikes. Well, there are a lot of States up for grabs:

Super Tuesday: February 5
Alabama primaries
Alaska caucuses
Am. Samoa caucuses
Arizona primaries
Arkansas primaries
California primaries
Colorado caucuses
Connecticut primaries
Delaware primaries
Georgia primaries
Idaho caucuses
Illinois primaries
Kansas caucuses
Mass. primaries
Minnesota caucuses
Missouri primaries
Montana caucuses
New Jersey primaries
New Mexico primary
New York primaries
North Dakota caucuses Oklahoma primaries
Tennessee primaries
Utah primaries
W. Virginia convention

We are here and no one knows what is going to happen on the Democratic side. It really seems to all come down to California and Hillary is in the lead there. But as in a lot of things with our country California will lead the way and we will see if Obama’s momentum can overtake her machine and her polish. They debated again on Thursday, just the two of them and I was concerned that Obama would just get killed. Instead he held his own but make no mistake, he just held his own. Hillary is smart, well spoken and despite all evidence to the contrary has great instincts. Still, watching her makes me cringe. She cannot communicate without a petulant, smug, superior and yes bitchy, attitude. On the other hand Barack, who I love and will vote for if I get the chance, seems like a scolding parent. Still, he survived in that fight. But will he survive California?
The Republicans are done and they did the right thing. They rejected this flipper Romney in favor of the grumpy old man Mc Cain. And I could vote for him even though I think he is wrong on the war, he is right on a lot of other stuff and as soon as he wins the nomination I think he will move away from all the tax cut, right to life talk. They have dismissed Huckabee but he will live to fight another day. There is no question that he burst from irrelevance to now being the guy who delivers the nomination to Mc Cain. Good for him. Mc Cain will be hard to handle in a general election. He is, as I said, a grumpy old man. There will be a lot of talk about his age but the bottom line is, old people vote. He will be tough in the general election. He will be tough in the general election. Do not discount this guy.

I watched meet the press this morning (what a great show) and was repressed by almost everyone but the Mary Matalin/James Carville thing is particularly depressing because these is just dying that this commie Mc Cain (when did that happen?) is going to win the nomination and Carville cannot believe anyone could be challenging the coronation of his once and future boss. The encouraging thing is that there are people in the middle. There are people open to compromise and the demonization of Mc Cain for being able to reach compromises with the Democrats is ultimately what will get him the nomination and maybe even the White House.

This is a new environment compared to the last 20 years. The Republicans lost me with Newt Gingrich and the beginning of the Orwellian language choices (brilliant) made by the Republican party when they threw “The Contract With America” at us. These were the politics of the 51% which were honed by Karl Rove and left the Democrats confused and standing in the shadows scratching their asses and their heads (different hands). The idea of “your with us or your against us”....”your for no child left behind or you hate kids”... “your for tax cuts or your an anti business commie”... “your for the war or you hate America AND freedom”. We, as a country are sick of this. But that having been said we could lapse into the same thing again.
Be aware Whether you are for Barack, Mc Cain or even Clinton. These are all good people. They all sincerely want what is best for us. Each of them will face an enormous challenge, and unbelievable challenge and they will need our support and our prayers. The people who support the people who we do not support (including my brother and many of my friends) have nothing but but the best intentions for our leaders and the country. It is hope that after we finish with the primaries we can have a healthy discussion about the issues and leadership and remember in the end that we are all Americans and have a lot of work to do.

Change?

So... I watched the New Hampshire debates and I have got to say... I do not get it. Barack Obama has been talking a lot about change but I figured perhaps he had a job in the past that required making change. He was an agent of change... he was committed to change...change, change, change. Then he won Iowa and now Hilary likes change and even more oddly that rich guy Romney now claims to be all about change. Why this fascination with change?

So why this fascination with change? We are in a war in Iraq... our economy looks to be entering a period where it is in an absolute shambles but all these folks can talk about is...change? I like change. Every year or so I take a cigar box I have filled with pocket change and take it to a coinstar machine and take the money and go play poker with it. But I think of change as something homeless people are interested in, not the leaders of the free world.

Obama appears to have “invented” change much in the same was Al Gore invented the internet back in the 2000 race. Hilary says she has already worked hard for change and has made a lot change in the past. My question is ... where? As Senator you do not have to make change. The First Lady does not historically make change. Wife of the Governor of Arkansas does not make a lot of change (unless she is turning tricks on the side). Before that she worked at The Rose Law Firm doing Whitewater deals and even though I have been an attorney (not in Arkansas) for 20 years I have never made change in that position. So when has she made change? At Yale? Perhaps as a girl in Chicago she worked at Mc Donalds? Doubtful.

Edwards never made change in his life unless he got change back from his hairdresser.

Romney says he is an agent of change but when to rich guys deal with change at all? Don’t they have people to do that for them?

There is a great Southpark episode where the town is beset upon by homeless people who just wander around uttering one word as they hold out their hands..."change?" I would love to run the episode with the current candidates photo shopped in as these characters. That would make me laugh.

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So seriously. Obama has tapped into something that has been tapped into a million times before. Most recently in the 2006 elections. When people are unhappy with the status quo they want... change. The fact that Obama was the only one who understood this prior to Iowa should give everyone pause. And Obama has done it with a lot of genius. He is a smart guy and whoever said that he is a canvas upon which all of us are painting our own hopes and dreams... Amen... it is true. People like me are hoping he is different, even praying he is different. Can he deliver real change? It is doubtful but from my perspective he has the best shot.

Hilary cannot be a change agent. She is married to her husbands connections and although Bill used them skillfully and to some extent kept them at arms length. Hilary has gotten into bed with them metaphorically if not actually. She is dead and does not even know it and we will learn a lot about her character watching how she handles this unceremonious dumping. She could do more for her party and the country by agreeing to be Vice President but I think those of us who find her dislikable (though very smart and competent) might be uncomfortable even with that.

How about Edwards? The rich plaintiff lawyer with the good hair has beaten Hilary in Iowa and is making a genuine run but where does that get him? Another vice presidential race probably does fly for him but there should be a cabinet post for this guy in some type of domestic do gooder position. How about head of education or even making him the immigration czar. He certainly will not be the nominee unless Obama shoots himself in the head which in our modern media age could always happen.

The funniest thing was watching Romney try and catch the newest tune that he just heard. This guy sold his soul in order to try and get George Bush’s base which worked so well for the Republicans in 2000 and 2004. That base is no longer there. Watching him grab the wrong issue (immigration...yawn...most of us don’t care) now trying to say he is a change agent because of his consulting company experience and his Olympic experience is... absurd at best. he is deader then a doornail and he does not even know it. KMc Cain of course nailed him on Face the Nation when asked about Romney now claiming to be the agent of change. Mc Cain said, “well he certainly has changed his own positions a lot, maybe that is what he meant.” Thats tough.

It is best with all of these guys to remember what Ben Stein said on TV this morning. The power for any President to make meaningful change in any of our lives is almost nil. If we want our lives to change and our country to change these guys are not going to do it for us. Ultimately that rests on you and me.

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One good note about New Hampshire is that Diners are getting great play on all the TV stations showing how the politicians work them. I am surprised that no one has contacted me so as to get some insight as to how to handle politicking in a diner. It has impressed upon me however a strong urge to head to New Hampshire. I was watching a place called Chez Vachon on CBS Morning news. Make me a reservation.

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So... all of that having been said, where are we. Obama is going to win the the nomination and likely the whole thing. The more of Bush and the economy and the war that we get the more he becomes the guy who can only stop himself. Unexpectedly and by default John Mc Cain is going to be the Republican nominee. Huckabee, though i like him and admire his populist leanings is after all a Baptist minister and sooner or later every station will run a scene of religious conservatives praying (out loud for gosh sakes) for him on television and he will be dead. Might be a good VP though. Romney is dead but rich so he thrashes around for a while and then goes back to being a rich guy. Guliani...Guliani... he has this strategy (seriously that is what he calls it) to wait for Super Tuesday. The race will be long over by then and he will not have money for the TV that would be needed to compete. This guy has nothing to offer other then on 9-11 he happened to be Mayor of NYC. It is not enough to hide the fact that the guy in almost any context (marriage, politics, business) is an asshole. Enough said. Obama, Mc Cain. Not just in New Hampshire but all the way to end. Then I am taking Obama and giving the points.