Election Fatigue

It could happen to you, it could happen to me, it could happen to everyone eventually... But seriously. I never thought it would happen to me. I was really, really excited about this election. It was close, it was engaging... everything I could want our of an election. I loved it. It had a good guy (Obama), a bad girl (Hillary), a grumpy old man (Mc Cain), a high priest (Huckabee) and a born again Nazi (John Mc Cain). It was fun. I love our system and even with these absurdly early primaries making the season more absuder (legal term) it seemed like it would all be good.

I think I started to tire when I found out that John Mc Cain was a left leaning, pinko, gay marriage espousing, pro abortion, anti-life, probably gay himself, killer of small children, puppy maiming BASTARD! I had no idea. I thought he was just a smart but grumpy old man who had served his country well, been a prisoner of war, devoted himself to public service, refused the pork barrel earmarks and (in earlier elections) stood up to hate and intolerance. So it was distracting when my favorite comfort woman to the Nazi’s... Anne Coulter set me straight on John Mc Cain. I think that started to make me tired.
And then there was Super Tuesday. I was really thinking I would get some closure on the Obama/Clinton thing at Super Tuesday but... instead I get uncertainty and fear that we will go to the convention without being united. That there will be legal battles over the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegates where Hillary won and Barack didn’t campaign. That there will be a convention decided by “Super Delegates” that no one voted for.

Now Romney has quit. That is a good thing because I really hated him (and I know that is irrational) and his rich guy (I put 35 million into my own campaign) pretty haired, I turned around the Olympics and a consulting company so I can run the country, attitude. Now everyone says Mc Cain will pick Huckabee as his VP but I do not see it. I hope he does not grab Johnny Depp before Obama thinks of it. God it is hard on me coming up with all the ideas for these guys.

And when I started to think about all that I really just became tired of the whole thing. I listened to all the analysts on Wednesday puffing and talking and... I just got tired. The local NPR station started it’s Valentine’s pledge drive this morning and I was grateful for the break in commentating. I think that I am afraid for the future and that makes me feel weak and sad. I do not have a lot of faith that anyone can save us from a long cold winter in our economy and I have fears of fascism and nationalism and a lot of other ism’s as we start through our Limbaugh and Coulter demagogues to find people to blame. I really am afraid of that so... I am taking a break from political blogging for a while and doing a strategic withdrawal until March or so. Certainly know one can object to that?

I Am So Happy

As you can tell from my prior post I was... apprehensive about South Carolina. I was concerned that he and Hillary had been so unpleasant and unlikable to one another that they would shred each other. Instead Billary and their blasting of Obama looks to have galvanized the African American vote while not losing the young base he built in Iowa. I am VERY excited. 55% to 27% percent. That is a.... stomping....a bitch slapping... whatever you want to call it, it was big. Bigger then anything we have seen in any of the primaries. Edwards 18% is the death nell of his Presidential bid but he will soldier on because there is still a chance that he can be a power broker at the convention but... that looks less likely if Obama can keep moving.


Hillary is hard to love and Billary... the pair of them, with Bill beating up on people as Hillary tries to stay aloof... alienated a lot of people. I was worried that it worked the other way but God Bless the Democrats of South Carolina for staying the course. This seems momentus, perhaps bigger then Iowa and it renews my hope in the process and the country.


Edwards=Attorney General? That would scare the shit out of the top 1%. We might have an administration that would enforce anti trust laws again. I worry about what Obama will walk into if he wins. We really are up a creek but perhaps he can be transformational. I pray that is the case. it is a good night.

The Erata Election

NEW YEARS RESOLUTIONS:

Sooo... the year and new Years resolutions.... not good. Under the new modified Becker Redemption Scoring System (BRSS) I scored 16/25 possible points the first week. that seemed pretty weak. 64%... you know... thats a D... at best. I felt pretty bad about it until week two when I scored.... an 11. That is an F in any school. it is a problematic system. Doing 5 prescribed good things (virtues) every day and avoiding 5 bad ones (vices). It was interesting because Tiemann (a good German Lutheran) and I got into a “discussion” because he has co-opted the system and stretched it out to EVERY good thing he does allows the possibility of doing another bad thing.

We are both rigorous rules people. We do not like to follow them but we desperately like to know what the rules are so we can measure our own failures by them. We would like to think that we are setting up the rules so that we can encourage ourselves to do better, something to measure successes by... but...we really need to know what the rules are so we know we can... fail.
That might be hard on Tim. But it isn’t on me. But still... I like having rules... because... well I like having rules because... because I am a mess. It is like Old Testament stuff and I WANT to live under the law. Very stupid. But... I guess I will keep thrashing around with it. I would like to get back up to a D again this week. That would be sweet but it is Monday night and I am.... not optimistic.

*****

PUSH POLLING:
The Republican party seems to be a lot cause. I was raised a Republican and stayed a Republican well into being an adult and a father but somewhere in the middle of Clinton’s first terms with the Newt Gingrich “Contract with America” they started to lose me. Platitudes of a divisive nature beginning to cobble out the 51% majority that shifts and swerves so long as to keep the right people in power and in the process terrorizing all of us. We cannot be victims to that stupidity again. This party sends out polls to my wife that read as follows:

HOMELAND SECURITY ISSUES:
1. Should Republicans do everything they can to prevent Liberal Democrats from repealing the USA Patriot Act and other important laws that help our intelligence agencies protect Americans? Yes, No, or Undecided.
(followed by 3 more in similar vein) 
ECONOMIC ISSUES:
1. Should we make our fight against the Democrat's massive tax hikes a central part of the 2008 campaign? YEs, No, or Undecided.
ok...I said only one, but this one is too much to leave out:
1. Should Republicans renew the fight for a Balanced Budget Amendment?  Yes, No, or Undecided.
DOMESTIC ISSUES:
1. Should Republicans oppose Senator Clinton's one size fits all, government-run healthcare plan? Yes, No, or Undecided.
SOCIAL ISSUES:
1. Do you think Congress should pass the Federal Marriage Amendment, protecting marriage as a union between one man and one woman? Yes, No, or Undecided.
DEFENSE ISSUES: 
2)Should Republicans fight Democrat efforts to impose Clinton-era cuts in the Pentagon's budget? 
REPUBLICAN PARTY:
1. Do you support the election of Republican candidates across the country and the rebuilding of our majorities over the next 10 years? Yes, No, or Undecided.

Seriously, can you believe this shit? What kind of people are they trying to appeal to. Even conservative people like my wife get offended. I know that this type of divisive rhetoric worked in the Bush administration but we have to be something better now. there is too much on the line. But we will see. Thinking about this years election I am reminded of the new movie title... “There Will Be Blood.”

*****

South Carolina. Well it was kind of interesting. I thought the Democratic Primary was on the same day as the Republican. I was wrong... again. The Republicans went and it went to form. Mc cain, Huckabee... and whoever else.... Romney was out in Nevada and he ran and won unopposed. I was disappointed that Hillary beat Obama out there although he won the delegates. It is looking more and more like everything will come down to Super Tuesday. Who would have ever thunk we could have the possibility of a meaningful convention where they actually fight about stuff and maybe even compromise about stuff. Who knows... could be fun. The Democrats his South carolina this Saturday and we will see if Obama can carry the black vote solidly and get the votes he was getting in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he does the race is over but if Hillary keeps getting all the old people... everything gets shady from there on.

*****

South Carolina REDUX: It is Saturday morning and I am... a little scared. I really think Hillary might come out on top and I view that as an absolute disaster/abomination for the Democratic Party and the hope that we can win the White House cleanly. Leave it to the Democrats to have two minorities duke it out with each other, polarize both sides, divide the party and go down in flames.... but they could do it. If Obama actually loses South Carolina I would advise him to think about taking a high road and biding his time and withdraw from this race, accept a cabinet position of some sort and start agitating for change in that administration. In four years whomever is saddles with this Bushy/war economy is going to stand a good chance of being a doomed one termer anyway. I am just filled with dread that South Carolina is going to turn this dream election into a nightmare.

And Romney... if he wins in Florida becomes a prohibitive front runner. And he might with Guliani fading and their economy in a shambles over the housing nightmare. A Romney/Clinto election is a low road election with two powerful machines gearing up to swift boat each other to hell and back again for that sacred 1% margin it takes to win leaving the rest of feeling sick, disrespected, margianalized and well.... used. That could make a very ugly and unhappy four years. More then ever we need someone to unite us with a passion for what it means to be an American and Obama is still the only one I can see inspiring a lot of us to be better then what we are. The others pander to the special interests of their “core” but people in the middle need a President too. It should be out turn.

Change?

So... I watched the New Hampshire debates and I have got to say... I do not get it. Barack Obama has been talking a lot about change but I figured perhaps he had a job in the past that required making change. He was an agent of change... he was committed to change...change, change, change. Then he won Iowa and now Hilary likes change and even more oddly that rich guy Romney now claims to be all about change. Why this fascination with change?

So why this fascination with change? We are in a war in Iraq... our economy looks to be entering a period where it is in an absolute shambles but all these folks can talk about is...change? I like change. Every year or so I take a cigar box I have filled with pocket change and take it to a coinstar machine and take the money and go play poker with it. But I think of change as something homeless people are interested in, not the leaders of the free world.

Obama appears to have “invented” change much in the same was Al Gore invented the internet back in the 2000 race. Hilary says she has already worked hard for change and has made a lot change in the past. My question is ... where? As Senator you do not have to make change. The First Lady does not historically make change. Wife of the Governor of Arkansas does not make a lot of change (unless she is turning tricks on the side). Before that she worked at The Rose Law Firm doing Whitewater deals and even though I have been an attorney (not in Arkansas) for 20 years I have never made change in that position. So when has she made change? At Yale? Perhaps as a girl in Chicago she worked at Mc Donalds? Doubtful.

Edwards never made change in his life unless he got change back from his hairdresser.

Romney says he is an agent of change but when to rich guys deal with change at all? Don’t they have people to do that for them?

There is a great Southpark episode where the town is beset upon by homeless people who just wander around uttering one word as they hold out their hands..."change?" I would love to run the episode with the current candidates photo shopped in as these characters. That would make me laugh.

****
So seriously. Obama has tapped into something that has been tapped into a million times before. Most recently in the 2006 elections. When people are unhappy with the status quo they want... change. The fact that Obama was the only one who understood this prior to Iowa should give everyone pause. And Obama has done it with a lot of genius. He is a smart guy and whoever said that he is a canvas upon which all of us are painting our own hopes and dreams... Amen... it is true. People like me are hoping he is different, even praying he is different. Can he deliver real change? It is doubtful but from my perspective he has the best shot.

Hilary cannot be a change agent. She is married to her husbands connections and although Bill used them skillfully and to some extent kept them at arms length. Hilary has gotten into bed with them metaphorically if not actually. She is dead and does not even know it and we will learn a lot about her character watching how she handles this unceremonious dumping. She could do more for her party and the country by agreeing to be Vice President but I think those of us who find her dislikable (though very smart and competent) might be uncomfortable even with that.

How about Edwards? The rich plaintiff lawyer with the good hair has beaten Hilary in Iowa and is making a genuine run but where does that get him? Another vice presidential race probably does fly for him but there should be a cabinet post for this guy in some type of domestic do gooder position. How about head of education or even making him the immigration czar. He certainly will not be the nominee unless Obama shoots himself in the head which in our modern media age could always happen.

The funniest thing was watching Romney try and catch the newest tune that he just heard. This guy sold his soul in order to try and get George Bush’s base which worked so well for the Republicans in 2000 and 2004. That base is no longer there. Watching him grab the wrong issue (immigration...yawn...most of us don’t care) now trying to say he is a change agent because of his consulting company experience and his Olympic experience is... absurd at best. he is deader then a doornail and he does not even know it. KMc Cain of course nailed him on Face the Nation when asked about Romney now claiming to be the agent of change. Mc Cain said, “well he certainly has changed his own positions a lot, maybe that is what he meant.” Thats tough.

It is best with all of these guys to remember what Ben Stein said on TV this morning. The power for any President to make meaningful change in any of our lives is almost nil. If we want our lives to change and our country to change these guys are not going to do it for us. Ultimately that rests on you and me.

*****
One good note about New Hampshire is that Diners are getting great play on all the TV stations showing how the politicians work them. I am surprised that no one has contacted me so as to get some insight as to how to handle politicking in a diner. It has impressed upon me however a strong urge to head to New Hampshire. I was watching a place called Chez Vachon on CBS Morning news. Make me a reservation.

****
So... all of that having been said, where are we. Obama is going to win the the nomination and likely the whole thing. The more of Bush and the economy and the war that we get the more he becomes the guy who can only stop himself. Unexpectedly and by default John Mc Cain is going to be the Republican nominee. Huckabee, though i like him and admire his populist leanings is after all a Baptist minister and sooner or later every station will run a scene of religious conservatives praying (out loud for gosh sakes) for him on television and he will be dead. Might be a good VP though. Romney is dead but rich so he thrashes around for a while and then goes back to being a rich guy. Guliani...Guliani... he has this strategy (seriously that is what he calls it) to wait for Super Tuesday. The race will be long over by then and he will not have money for the TV that would be needed to compete. This guy has nothing to offer other then on 9-11 he happened to be Mayor of NYC. It is not enough to hide the fact that the guy in almost any context (marriage, politics, business) is an asshole. Enough said. Obama, Mc Cain. Not just in New Hampshire but all the way to end. Then I am taking Obama and giving the points.

New Years Butt Kicking

The New Year! Very exciting. Watching West Virginia play Oklahoma on January 2nd. Bowl games thus far lead me to the following conclusions:
1. BCS did not work this year to create exciting match ups OR games that truly satisfy the quest for National Champion.
2. Missouri did indeed get screwed by not being included in BCS but... you cannot lose at the end of the year.
3. Illinois WAS lucky to beat Ohio State... and nothing more.
West Virginia is making a game of it and I do not know how to feel. I hate Oklahoma for beating Missouri twice but isn’t it better for Missouri to have Oklahoma beat the crap out of them?

****

The Diner Review will continue next year but perhaps with some format changes. I think it is imperative for survival that some regular readers contribute. I am looking for a minimum of 3 guest pieces a month. Reviews, Diner Reviews, political rants..musings...give me something bitches.

****

New Years Eve. What a party. We were honored to have the Camp Arcadia Staff as well as some staff alumni spend a portion of New Years Eve or the entire New Years Eve. At any given time from the day before New years Eve (new years eve, eve?) to this morning we had between 12 and 42 people wandering around and sleeping and eating there. Most of these people between the ages of 20-26. There was a lot of energy and we were really excited about hosting this on New years Eve but we had not counted on a three day extravaganza. We also had to deal with the issues of 20 year olds drinking (it is illegal in St. Louis I am told). We did not buy any beer for the party but the kids supplied a quarter barrel (for those of you not familiar with the vernacular a quarter barrel is a keg) which lasted for a while but was evidently supplemented by jello shots and various bottles of cheap vodka. The key thing is that no one died and everyone woke up the next morning. We did over flow a toilet on the first floor which leaked through to the basement but other then that no permanent damage. A haz-mat team was sent by the EPA into the basement to take readings but once they flushed it out with chemicals and water (an additional 23 year old was discovered sleeping in a cabinet under the bar) it turned out that there was no structural damage. They finally all evacuated around noon on January 2nd. A good time was had by all.

****

Half time of the West Virginia game and WVA is for lack of a better term kicking Oklahoma’s boomer soonered ass. Oklahoma is flat and WVA is on fire with passion and good defense. They are playing the same game Missouri meant to play by playing smarter and faster then the other guys. I wonder how it will end up in the BCS if this holds up but you have to think Oklahoma's size and conditioning will eventually take over the game. We will see.

****

Iowa Caucuses are tomorrow night. We will not know anything until late tomorrow night or early tomorrow morning. Right now they are making me look like geniuses in the polls with Obama and H leading their respective party polls. I feel pretty good about Obama, I think people are going to vote for change whether Obama could deliver it or not he is the guy who we think has the best chance. Bad for Hilary. Huckabee is not going to do as well as I hoped. he still might win but Mc Cain will be the one who surprises in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney is lost. He has nice hair but the immigration message is not a winner and his attack adds are turning people off and off and off and if you are buying a lot of TV time and they are turning adds off,.... you lose.
****
OK...now it is the night of the third of January. Oklahoma got stomped by West Virginia. Bitch slapped...humiliated on national television. Unbelievable. But what is really unbelievable is that The St. Louis Diner Review called the Iowa Primary on November 29. I am like... unbelievable. Now we roll on to New Hampshire where Romney will start to disappear and Mc Cain will start to surge. Obama will continue to roll in New Hampshire as well. He has momentum and will shortly be unstoppable. UNSTOPPABLE. Happy New Year!

DINER REVIEW ANNOUNCES PRIMARY WINNERS

Diner Review Picks Nominees!








I know that everyone is in a race to have the first primary or caucus or whatever and I know that they are going to try and spring all this on us in January but your friends at the Diner Review have decided to forego all of that and save your New Years by telling you now who the nominees are going to be. Absent a major stroke by the populations of Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan the nominees will be:

Democrats: Barack Obama
Republicans: Mike Huckabee

You heard it here first. But why you might ask the great Diner Reviewer do you think they will be the nominees? I will instruct you as if i were the great and all powerful LIBERAL MEDIA. Well, the schedule is as follows for January for the Democrats:

January 2008
3 - Iowa caucus (per Iowa caucus, website of the Iowa Caucus Project)
8 - New Hampshire Primary (changed on 11/21/07 so it could move back up to first primary status; they waited to make sure Michigan wouldn't schedule their primary even earlier than Jan 15th)
15 - Michigan (on 11/20/07, a judge ruled the primary can be held on Jan 15th; DNC will probably penalize them by taking away delegates)
19 - Nevada caucus (approved by DNC)
26 - South Carolina Primary (approved by DNC)
29 - Florida Primary (may be penalized by DNC for breaking party rules, which may result in losing delegates)

The Republicans throw in a party in Wyoming:
January 2008
3 - Iowa
5 - Wyoming Republican Convention
8 - New Hampshire Primary
15 - Michigan
19 - Nevada, South Carolina
29 - Florida

So here are the problems and opportunities according to the Diner Review. Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat who can lose the presidential election. She is a galvanizing force for the Republicans and has no real governing experience and although advised by the BEST political machine in recent history she cannot fix herself. She has flipped on every important issue to make herself more palatable to what she perceives as the the main stream of the party and is nothing anymore to anyone other then Bill’s really smart, aggressive wife. She is too much of the same system that has brought us here. All Obama will do is the week before the caucus is to remind the Iowans that if she is elected we will have had 20 years of Bush and Clinton dynasties and are they going to tack on another 8 years... a whole generation of two family families having the the Presidency divvied up between them? Iowan’s will not tolerate it.

John Edwards is lost before he starts. he does have a great populist stump speech and I think he has a great heart but he got played out as Gore’s number 2 and people think that they have his number. He is a populist of the multi millionaire variety. he might make a nice VP candidate this time around but Obama will need someone from New York, California or Texas to round out his ticket. Bottom line is that Edwards would be tough to elect as well.
Obama is asking the hard questions and doing his best to tell the truth. He is telling the folks that there are no easy answers and that it is time for a change. Thats is what people want to hear, that is what they need to hear. I only hope the guy can deliver. he appears to be the only one of the bunch who can make any claim to be an outsider. Perhaps it is an illusion and maybe even a lie but... maybe night and that is all we really need. Once he wins Iowa Hillary’s bubble bursts, Edwards goes away when his funding dries up. New Hampshire even if Hillary can limp through and win that one starts to get killed in Michigan (which might lose it’s delegates anyway) but when they hit Nevada and South Carolina it will be over. Obama will kill her by then

The Republicans will be a lot easier. Huckabee beats Romneys well financed machine by 5 percentage points... or more. Guliani get killed in Iowa... killed. He and Romney limp into New Hampshire where they narrowly beat the rising tide of the Huckabee machine which then rolls on into Michigan, where he kills and the they fight a little battle in Nevada and then HE KILLS THEM in South carolina... and if Florida has to vote...they will and he will win there too.
Romney is a Mormon and the conservative christians will not line up behind him. Like it or not Christians view Mormons as nuts. I know that sounds bigoted or wrong but it is what it is and no amount of repositioning or pandering can get him there. Guliani is just simply unlikable outside of New York and he cannot say 9-11 enough to change that. Huckabee is pleasant, likable former minister who talks pretty well and has a nice story. he is also from Hope Arkansas and the republicans as much as they hate Clinton, admire the way he bitch slapped them. it is Huckabee and it is over before Super Tuesday.